In what could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals, the Mavericks take on the Jazz. This game is going to be full of great scorers, mainly Luka Doncic.
Doncic is coming off a huge 49-point night against the Pelicans. He’ll look to have a similar performance against the Utah Jazz tonight. However, the Mavericks will have to find an answer for the big man Rudy Gobert.
Donovan Mitchell will also be returning to form tonight, which is great news for Utah. Now, the one-two punch of Mitchell and Gobert can go back to work. The Mavericks and the Jazz are both fighting for the No.4 spot in the conference.
Not that the positioning matters just yet, but it definitely could be a factor in the future. Let’s build up a single-game parlay for this showdown, along with all our other NBA computer picks.
Game Preview: Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
The Mavericks don’t have the flashy high-scoring offense that some might expect, but they win games. The offense only scores 106.64 points per game, yet they’ve won 35 games this season.
Today, their main focus will be on playing defense, something they do incredibly well. They allow an average of 103.29 points per game, ranking second in the entire NBA.
The Utah Jazz have the fourth-best offense in the NBA, led by Donovan Mitchell. On average, the Jazz put up 113.74 points per game. The question is, can this incredible, high-scoring offense find a way to put up points against Dallas.
We think the answer is yes, and it’s mainly because of Rudy Gobert. Dallas lost Kristaps Porzingis, giving the Jazz an advantage inside.
Against the Spread: Dallas Mavericks +5.5
Although we think the Utah Jazz will win this game, we think the Mavericks will cover the spread. Over their last three games, the Mavericks have gone 2-1 ATS when playing the Jazz. The Mavericks have covered the spread six times in their last seven games.
The 5.5-point spread is large enough for the Mavericks to cover without actually winning the game.
The Total: UNDER 217
This is actually a tough one to call, but we’ll take the under in this game due to Dallas’ defense. Most of the perimeter scoring should be kept under control.
However, the Jazz are going to dominate in the paint tonight. We already know the shortcomings of the Dallas offense, but their defense is superior. We expect the total to fall just under 217 by the end of the game tonight.
Player Points: Luka Doncic UNDER 31.5
Luka Doncic is coming off a huge game against the Pelicans, but we don’t think that’ll happen tonight. He’s facing a top-ten defense in the NBA, one that only allows an average of 106.88 points per game.
Donovan Mitchell is likely to be the player guarding Luka Doncic as well, making it tougher for Luka to score. It’s best to take Luka Doncic UNDER 31.5 here.
Player Points: Mike Conley OVER 12.5
Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell will receive a lot of attention from the Mavericks tonight. This leaves one Utah Jazz player that should rise from the eyes being off him, Mike Conley.
Conley is an incredible three-point shooter and an adequate scorer. In fact, against Dallas, Conley averages 22 points per game, well over the 12.5 required.