What To Consider When Making An NFL Pick
Which NFL picks do we provide
Betting on the NFL requires bettors to think about a lot. From statistics to on-field matchups, there are several factors that sharp bettors routinely factor into their handicapping. These criteria, in particular, are worth thinking about before making NFL picks to give bettors the best chance to have success in the hyper-competitive NFL betting market.
Think About Injuries
More important than any statistic is knowing which players are on the field for each NFL game. The NFL is such a personnel-driven sport that missing starters at key positions can be fatal to a team’s chances to function properly. This is especially true of the offensive line, where cohesion with the rest of the line can be the difference between effective blocking and an inability to keep offensive players upright.
Injuries to key defenders are also huge for betting purposes. Missing starters on defense can make things significantly easier on the opposing offense.
That can have an impact not only on sides but totals. Bettors need to keep tabs on the injury report each week before placing their bets to avoid wagering on a team without its most important pieces.
Line vs. Line Matchups
Offensive and defensive line play is something that sharp bettors pay attention to that casual bettors do not usually think about. It is arguably the most important facet of the game, as protecting and getting pressure on the quarterback is key to winning in pro football. Before placing any NFL bet, bettors need to evaluate how each offensive line matches up with the opposing defensive line.
The battle between offensive and defensive lines becomes even more important in the postseason. There are countless examples of a great defensive line holding down potent offenses in the playoffs just by getting after the quarterback with their line play. While casual bettors like to think about skill position matchups, the lines are where money is won.
Consider the Details
Understanding the context behind wins and losses is vital to successful NFL betting. Things like strength of schedule should be taken into account when placing NFL bets, as it can contextualize the results from a season. After all, a team with 10 straight wins over playoff teams is more impressive than a team with 10 straight wins over teams with losing records.
Other details to think about pertaining to contextualizing statistical outputs. If a team blows out an opponent, they will likely spend the end of the game running the football to chew clock. That could have an impact on their passing yardage stats. But bettors who put those stats into the proper context can better use those numbers to inform their betting decisions.
Don’t Overvalue Skill Players
The biggest mistake that new sports bettors make is to inflate the value of skill players across the league. Wide receivers and running backs are valuable within the context of the system they play in, but they are ultimately the most replaceable players on the field. Just like NFL teams shouldn’t overpay running backs and wide receivers, bettors should not overvalue those position groups.
More important than running backs and wide receivers are the players who block for them and throw them the ball. Quarterback play and offensive line play are irreplaceable on a football field and should be the focal point of any handicap of a team’s offense.
How to Pick an NFL Betting Site
With states legalizing sports gambling left and right, there are many new bettors in the market for the upcoming NFL season. And with so many new players in the market, there are a lot of bettors who will be looking for a sportsbook to put in their NFL bets. Here, we will go over some of the main criteria bettors need to think about when picking an NFL betting site.
Pick One You Can Use
The most important thing a bettor can do when picking a site to place NFL bets is making sure they can use the site. The first way to do that is to make sure that the site is legal in their state. Different states have different laws and other sportsbooks that can be used. A bettor must familiarize themselves with their options before making any kind of decision.
Additionally, a bettor should make sure that the sportsbooks they are interested in can be used on their devices. A decent user experience is very important to a positive NFL betting experience. Making sure a bettor can navigate the menus of the site is extremely important.
The More Markets, the Merrier
Once a bettor has found a site that they can use legally and can navigate without trouble, the next step is to find a site with betting markets that appeal to them. Most, if not all, sportsbooks have spread, total and moneyline markets to get involved with. But bettors who want to get involved with more exotic markets should check for their availability.
For example, some NFL betting sites have extensive menus of prop bets available. Some even let bettors parlay multiple props from within the same NFL game. If that is something that is important to a bettor, they need to make sure it is accessible to them before they put their money into a sportsbook.
Find a Good Bonus
As long as a sportsbook meets the above criteria, finding an excellent bonus is another essential move to make. Bonuses can award bettors additional funds that they can use when betting on the NFL. They can also provide risk-free bets that can be used to insure against a losing wager the first time placing a bet.
The most important thing when finding a sportsbook bonus is to make sure it works based on the needs of the bettor. If a bettor places high-stakes bets, they typically won’t get much value out of a $10 free bet, though that free bet offer could be beneficial for someone who places smaller wagers.
Customer Service is Key
Finally, making sure that an NFL betting site has customer service options that meet your needs is important. If a bettor requires live chat or email support rather than telephone support, they need to make sure those options are available. The same can be said about phone support, which is not always a given in today’s sportsbook marketplace. That way, they can have their inquiries answered as quickly as possible and in a way that they can actually access them when needed.
Popular NFL Betting Markets
There is no more heavily bet on sports league in America than the NFL. Each football Sunday brings bettors multiple opportunities to place bets as they attempt to win money across a variety of betting markets. Here, we will go over the most popular NFL betting markets, how they work, and what to keep in mind before placing your wagers.
NFL Spread Betting
In the NFL, the point spread is the most popular betting market available. Here, a point spread is used to even out the playing field between the two teams in a given matchup. If a bettor backs a favorite, points are taken off of that favorite’s final score. Or if they back an underdog, points are added to that team’s score. Whichever team has the superior score after the application of the spread is the winner for that bet.
The NFL is so competitive from week to week. Because of that, even the biggest point spread favorites can fail to cover. Bettors should always evaluate the way each team matches up with the other to figure out what bets they should be placing in this market.
NFL Totals Betting
Each game in the NFL has a total attached to it. There, bettors are asked to pick whether the combined score of both teams will go over or under the number that is listed by the bookmaker. This market is perhaps the best example of how perception and reality do not always mesh together when betting on pro football.
For example, a game featuring two high-scoring teams is likely to feature a high total. But that does not necessarily mean that the over is the right play. Each team may have a game plan that revolves around ball control and time of possession, driving the score down. It is up to bettors to determine where those mismatches exist.
NFL Moneyline Betting
NFL bettors who use the moneyline market are asked to answer one question. That question is which team will win the NFL game they are betting on. Of course, moneyline betting isn’t that simple, as any team is capable of beating another on any given week. But for this market, there is no margin of victory requirement, and the amount of scoring done is not relevant. All that matters is successfully picking the winner.
Prop bets are becoming more and more common during NFL betting. These were markets that were once only used during Super Bowls but have since become a part of the repertoire of more bettors earlier in the season. With prop bets, bettors can wager on items pertaining to individual players, such as yardage numbers or whether a player will score a touchdown. They can also bet on team-related props, such as whether a team will score three straight times.
These markets require a great deal of care, as they are formulated using detailed math on each player on the field. Just because a prop bet looks like an obvious winner does not mean that it always is, especially with the potential for injuries looming in professional football.